My Patented Terrible ‘Survivor: Second Chance’ Pre-Season Rankings

"Survivor: Second Chance" (XFINITY)

Quick Note: I was live in Cambodia for the first three days of “Survivor: Second Chance.” My mission? To bring you all manner of outwitting, outplaying, outlasting goodness. So, be sure to check back after the premiere for an exclusive interview I conducted with Jeff Probst after the first Tribal Council. Also, we’ll have a full recap of the episode along with behind-the-scenes tidbits. Then, the next day we’ll have an interview with the first booted castaway. Follow me on Twitter (@gordonholmes) for all the up-to-the-minute news and info.

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Alright, here it is…my latest attempt at making sense out of the un-make-senseable.

The players you see below are not ranked by the place in which I think they will finish. They are ranked based on their odds of winning the whole she-bang. As many of you know, I am historically bad at this. So, if you base your office pool around my thoughts, I will not be held responsible.

Important Note: I know who goes home during the season premiere because I was huddled around a monitor in Cambodia when it happened. These rankings were written up shortly after the pre-game interviews and do not reflect anything that happened during the first episode.

  Fun Fact: Gordon has failed in fourteen attempts to pick a “Survivor” winner. The closest he came was picking Denise Stapley second in “Survivor: Philippines”  1. Jeff: The most dangerous person in the game of “Survivor” is the lovable scoundrel. Guys like “Boston” Rob Mariano and Tyson Apostol who can make cutthroat moves, while still keeping the jurors’ votes. I think Jeff Varner has the potential to be that kind of player.
  2. Kelley: Ciera stabbed her mom in the back, Kass flipped and flopped, Keith blew his alliance’s cover. Kelley is a blank slate. Most people don’t remember much about her. They don’t know that she’s smart, savvy, and willing to do what it takes to be remembered this time.
  3. Ciera: Ciera’s biggest problem is going to be if people want to boot her to hurt Vytas. If she can work around that, she’s going to be fine. She’s likable, smart, and a convincing liar.
  4. Kelly: Kelly’s still got it athletically, lots of people want to align with her, and everyone is underestimating her. Go back and read her pre-game interview where she claims to not watch the show and yet knows quite a bit about each player. She’s trouble. I’d love to see her take it.
 5. Andrew: I think Andrew’s in a really good spot. People think he’s super honest, but he’s perfectly willing to lie. If he can save that lie for the right time, he could set up his end-game and finally “outcast” the frustration over his Pearl Islands loss. (I hate myself for that last sentence.)
  6. Terry: In any other interview, if someone is lying to you, you call them on it. In “Survivor,” when Terry is telling you he doesn’t have pre-game alliances right after Jeff told you Terry was part of a pre-game conference call, you have to keep your mouth shut. It’s unfair for someone’s pre-game story to bleed into someone else’s. But oh man…did I want to. That being said, according to my Align/Malign game, everybody wants to partner with Terry. So, he’ll have a lot of room to maneuver.
  7. Monica: Monica who? She’s another Kelley who basically has a clean slate. If she can find her way into the numbers and bide her time until after the merge, she could be a big move or two away from the million.
  8. Abi-Maria: Abi-Maria is a mystery, wrapped in an enigma, wearing a buff. Outside of the game she’s delightful. Inside the game, she has Malcolm calling her “A dementor.” Apparently she was already getting revved up and being a little cray during the pre-game. I could see her getting to the end as the Secret Agent to someone’s “Boston” Rob.
  9. Jeremy: Jeremy’s plan to keep the challenge threats around isn’t necessarily a bad one. But writing people off because they remind you of people from your past season seems a little shortsighted. Keep your options open, Jeremy.
  10. Vytas: I went back and watched some “Blood vs. Water” recently and was mega-impressed with how Vytas played Laura Boneham. He’s got serious game, but that isn’t a secret. He’s not one of the super targets like Spencer or Joe, but he’s close.
 11. Shirin: The biggest knock against Shirin is that people found her annoying on her season. That’s a pretty simple thing for her to remedy. Like comedy, annoyance is very subjective. If she can read people and stay on their good side, she could stick around for a long time.
  12. Peih-Gee: This is a big season with big players and big challenges and big blah blah blah… I’d want to be the person hanging back and letting all those strategists and challenge stallions bang heads. Peih-Gee could easily be that person. She’s cool and clever.
  13. Keith: I’m betting this jury is going to be made up of people who respect strategy and people like Keith, Woo, and Kimmi are going to have a tough time winning them over.
  14. Spencer: Yeah, Spencer’s chances of winning are better than 0.0% this time around. But, they’re not that much better. Say you’re up five people to three and you’re picking people off. Spencer will always be the top person to get rid of from a minority alliance.
 15. Stephen: Watching Stephen in Tocantins was a joy. His performance in the memory challenge is the perfect example of brain over brawn (and I guess beauty…thanks for that, Cagayan). In a season where everyone is given a “Men In Black” mind erase just before the marooning, Stephen tears the game apart. But, he’s just too highly regarded for his own good. Hopefully he’ll take it as a compliment. Ironically, he’ll be seen as too much of a threat and be sent home quickly like the other guy that was the “Best Player to Never Win the Game.”
 16. Kimmi: See Keith.
  17. Tasha: Who would have thought that Tasha would rub so many people the wrong way during the pre-game festivities? Can she overcome the bad first impression? Maybe. But, does she even know about it? Having a good grasp on how people perceive you is vital to this game.
  18. Woo: Woo has proven he’s capable of getting to the end of “Survivor.” And given the chance, he’s not going to take a Tony with him when a Kass is sitting right there. But, if he gets to final Tribal this time, I don’t see the jury rewarding him.
  19. Joe: Number nineteen? Say it ain’t so, Joe! I love the guy. I wish we were neighbors and he could come over to play darts. But, the fact is there is never not a good time to send him packing. They don’t make alliances sturdy enough to keep someone like Joe safe.
  20. Kass: My dirty secret? I really like Kass, and I think she could make a run for it if people would give her a chance. The problem? Nobody’s going to give her a chance.

Any Questions? Drop me a line on Twitter: @gordonholmes

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